What Do Lower Interest Rates Mean for Your Portfolio?
Investors are entering a new market as the US economy continues towards a soft landing and the Federal Reserve aims to cut interest rates.
Yet so much of the language we use to discuss portfolio construction deals with variable income - particularly the stock market. Phrases like buy low, sell high, timing the market, and bull runs are far easier to recognize than duration, and convexity. Interest rates are rising? Which interest rates?
The process isn't like the stock market when it comes to investing in fixed-income assets. For that reason, it's critical to understand how the fixed income market works and strategies are out there.
A fixed-income investment, also called an asset or instrument, is a group of asset classes that is meant to help individual investors create a steady source of income. The most well-known fixed income product is the bond, but that isn't the only kind of fixed income security. Outside of the various types of bonds, there are certificates of deposit (CD), fixed-income mutual funds, and asset allocation ETFs.
So, how does fixed income investing work? Let's stick with bonds for a moment.
A bond is focused on preserving capital and income. A borrower, usually a company or the government, makes payments to a third-party investor of a fixed amount including interest on a consistent schedule until the fixed income security matures. Once the bond reaches maturity, they pay the remaining principal amount to the investor. Payments are typically coupon payments on bond holdings and are exempt from taxes.
Many bonds also have legal protection to them that other equity securities such as shares or stocks don’t.
Let’s say- heaven forbid- the worst-case scenario happens and a bond issuer goes bankrupt. If that were to happen, the bondholders would be repaid via compensation when assets are liquidated. Meanwhile, if the same scenario happens with stocks, shareholders often don’t see a penny. However, this doesn't mean a bond owner will necessarily recover their income.
Bonds and other fixed-income assets aren't "risk-free." But the level of risk can usually be estimated by the type of investment.
A fixed-income portfolio can contain a variety of products. The most well-known are government or corporate bonds. But there are many other types, each with its own investment grade, pros, and cons. Let's go over them:
Like any type of investment, fixed-income has its own advantages and risks. Generally considered more stable, so long as you stay away from junk bonds, investors can count on regular income from their fixed-income assets. During periods of extreme volatility, regular income streams can provide some peace of mind.
Fixed-income investments primarily help preserve capital. They are much more predictable when it comes to knowing how much return you’ll get, and they may provide a premium above inflation. When you only include bond issuers you trust in your portfolio construction, then weathering a long-term strategy becomes less stressful.
Furthermore, while bonds rarely offer as much growth as other asset classes, Treasury and Municipal Bonds are relatively less risky than betting on individual stocks. The return is guaranteed, but you might not turn over as high of one as you would’ve liked.
However, slow growth can be offset by potential tax benefits. For example, interest income from U.S. Treasury bonds is exempt from both state and local income taxes. Likewise, the interest income you receive from municipal bonds is not subject to federal taxes.
The major concern the individual investor might have is the rise and fall of interest rates. This is because:
What does this mean for fixed income investing and strategy? If interest rates rise, investors run the risk of being locked into lower-interest bonds until maturity, or they lose their principal if they try to sell. This is why an entire portfolio of fixed income investments can become a hassle.
However, so long as you trust the bond issuer and the bond does not default, an individual investor who keeps their low-interest bond does not necessarily lose money. This is because they will receive their principal when the bond matures.
The other downside of a fixed-income-based portfolio is inflation. If inflation outpaces the bond interest rate, then an investor can lose out as their money loses value. For that reason, it's typical for an investment strategy to retain a percentage of its asset allocation in other asset classes.
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